Put a probability on every link of the L1 kill chain and one engagement's kill probability becomes a product, PK = PH · PK|H — susceptibility times vulnerability. Independent encounters multiply into a mission survival PS = Π(1 − PK,i), and the logarithm turns that product into a sum of risks, −ln PS, the cost a route planner can add. The Final Project is issued today.
Ball's susceptibility and vulnerability, the kill chain as a product of conditional links, the two toolkits of levers, and additive risk across a route.
FlashcardsKey terms and relations from the lesson, in a self-test deck.
Pre-flightFive questions to work before class — anyone can be called to the board.
SlidesThe deck we work through in class — an HTML deck you can annotate in the browser, with a print view for saving a PDF.
Demo · L1 revisitThe L1 demo, revisited: walk each link again and name the block that bought each lever and the probability it shrinks.