Physical optics of the lit faces only, checked against nTop's traced solver to 0.06 dB. It has no diffuse floor and no edge diffraction, so the far-side lobes the toy draws 6 dB down are absent here.
No trace shown. Both curves above are computed in your browser.
This compass is the vertical-polarization (VV) picture: an edge seen perpendicular at grazing returns in VV from either side. In horizontal polarization those grazing edge lobes largely vanish and only vertical faces — fuselage sides, a flat transom — flash.