ECE 495 — Electromagnetic Warfare and Survivability
Block 4: Aircraft Survivability and Mission Planning Lesson 32: Threat Geometry
Juan Jurado, Col, USAF, Ph.D.
Permanent Professor and Head
Electrical and Computer Engineering
Fall 2026
← → navigate · C draw ·
B board · S speaker view · F fullscreen · ? all shortcuts
Take attendance; laptops out for the type-along later.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Where We Left Off
Where We Left Off
L31 wrote survivability as a chain of links, $P_K = P_D \cdot P_{T|D} \cdot P_{I|T} \cdot P_{H|I} \cdot P_{K|H}$, and multiplied the encounters into $P_S$.
But every link after the first needs the defender to see you and then to reach you. Where on the map is that true?
Today we draw that map — the ring each site throws — and find out why it is never the circle on the planning chart.
Open cold: ask what shape they would draw for a SAM site on a chart.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Objectives
Lesson Objectives
By the end of this lesson, you will be able to:
Draw an aspect-dependent detection contour from the R⁴ law and the B-21 pattern
Bound it with the radar horizon , and say which bound binds at an altitude
Distinguish the MEZ from the LEZ , and what turning away does in each
Read a layered laydown for overlaps, gaps, and seams
A threat ring is not a circle — it depends on where you point your nose and how high you fly.
Read them out; the bumper is the thesis — say it once, unpack it all hour.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · The Contour
The Detection Contour: Heading Sets the Aspect
N
N
line of sight
φ
ψ
θ
radar
aircraft
heading
Aspect the radar sees from bearing $\varphi$
$$\theta = \mathrm{wrap}\left(\varphi + 180^\circ - \psi\right)$$
The contour: R⁴ law at that aspect
$$R(\varphi) = R_{\text{ref}}\left[\frac{\sigma_b\big(\theta(\varphi)\big)}{\sigma_{\text{ref}}}\right]^{1/4}$$
One heading everywhere — only the bearing changes what the radar sees
$\theta = 0$ is nose-on; $180^\circ$ is tail-on (the Project 3 pattern)
Draw the triangle on the board first if the room is cold; walk one bearing.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · The Contour
The B-21 Contour: a Cross, Not a Circle
nose-on
beam
beam
tail
VHF EWR
rings every 25 km
Heading 090°: every copy of the aircraft flies left to right. Project 3's VHF EWR and X-band TTR:
Radar Nose-on Beam Tail
EWR 89.9 km 100.9 km 89.9 km
TTR 45.6 km 91.0 km 60.8 km
Solid navy: the X-band contour. Dashed: its nose-on ring , the one a chart draws
The forward sector is quiet — down to 21.6 km — and the beams spike
Why is the VHF contour almost a circle?
Let them find the nose-on point before naming it; hold the fragment for L25/L26.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · The Horizon
The Radar Horizon: the Earth Gets a Vote
hr
4.12√hr
4.12√ht
grazing point
high: seen
low: masked
4/3-Earth curvature, exaggerated — not to scale
Radar horizon (4/3 Earth)
$$d = 4.12\left(\sqrt{h_r} + \sqrt{h_t}\right)\ \text{km}$$
Heights in meters, $d$ in km. L11 used one end, $4.12\sqrt{h}$; now the mast gets a term
A ridge is a nearer horizon: terrain masking works the same way
Detection needs both : $R_{\text{eff}}(\varphi) = \min\big(R(\varphi),\,d\big)$
Tie back to L11's listener at altitude; ask who benefits from a taller mast.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Which Bound Binds
Fly Low, and the Horizon Binds
The X-band TTR on a 10 m mast, the B-21 nose-on: R⁴ gives 45.6 km. At 30 m the Earth cuts that to 35.6 km.
0
50
100
150
200
0
20
40
60
80
R⁴ law: 45.6 km
horizon d = 4.12(√10 + √h)
range (km)
aircraft altitude (m)
horizon · 35.6 km
Now climb to 150 m. Which bound takes over — and where do the two cross?
Take answers on the fragment before advancing; the next slide is the answer.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Which Bound Binds
Climb, and the R⁴ Law Takes Over
At 150 m the horizon is out at 63.5 km; the signature, not the Earth, now sets 45.6 km.
0
50
100
150
200
0
20
40
60
80
R⁴ law: 45.6 km
horizon d = 4.12(√10 + √h)
cross at 62.5 m
range (km)
aircraft altitude (m)
R⁴ law · 45.6 km
The crossing sits where $d = R$: $h^\ast = \left(R/4.12 - \sqrt{h_r}\right)^2$. The quieter you are, the lower it falls — the same mast crosses the VHF EWR near 350 m.
Let the dot land before speaking. Low flight buys most against the long-range layers.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Engagement Zones
Seen Is Not Shot: the MEZ and the LEZ
A missile flies at an average speed $v_m$ for at most $t_{\max}$; the target flies at $v_t$.
MEZ — target flying straight at the site
$$R_{\text{MEZ}} = (v_m + v_t)\,t_{\max}$$
LEZ — target turning directly away
$$R_{\text{LEZ}} = (v_m - v_t)\,t_{\max}$$
The MEZ is the outer boundary; the LEZ is the no-escape zone inside it
Inside $R_{\min}$ the missile cannot guide or arm in time — a hole at the center
A constant-speed teaching model. "MEZ" is also Joint airspace-control vocabulary (JP 3-01); air-to-air literature says "no-escape zone."
Define both; make them say which one a planner treats as untouchable.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Engagement Zones
Two Aircraft, Both Closing: Both Inside the Reach
40 km
20 km
to scale · 5.6 px/km
Closing: the reach is the MEZ
$$(1.00 + 0.25) \times 40 = 50\ \text{km}$$
$v_m = 1.0$ km/s, $v_t = 0.25$ km/s, $t_{\max} = 40$ s
One aircraft at 40 km, one at 20 km — both nose-on to the site
Both turn directly away at launch. What happens to the ring?
Take predictions on the fragment; someone will say the ring stays put.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Engagement Zones
Turn Away, and the Reach Shrinks to the LEZ
40 km
20 km
to scale · 5.6 px/km · dashed: the MEZ
Opening: the reach is the LEZ
$$(1.00 - 0.25) \times 40 = 30\ \text{km}$$
At 40 km the turn wins: the missile runs out of time
At 20 km it loses: inside the LEZ there is no escape
Between the rings, turning away wins.
Let the ring shrink before speaking. Ask what the turn costs the mission.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Engagement Zones
Any Heading: the Envelope Between the Rings
50
40
40
30
MEZ
LEZ
km, heading 090°
Radial approximation
$$R(\alpha) \approx (v_m + v_t\cos\alpha)\,t_{\max}$$
$\alpha$ is the angle from your velocity to the site — the same aspect $\theta$ that set $\sigma$
Closing ($\alpha = 0$): the MEZ. Opening ($180^\circ$): the LEZ. Abeam: $v_m t_{\max}$
Lethal zone = inside the contour, inside the envelope, outside $R_{\min}$
The exact intercept triangle agrees at 0° and 180° and is within about 3% abeam at these speeds.
Point out that the envelope and the contour share one angle; that is tomorrow's cost.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Layered Defenses
Layered Defenses: Overlaps, Gaps, and Seams
SAM-1
SAM-2
SAM-3
EWR
gap 20 km
overlap 9.6 km
heading 090° · 3 px/km
L7's layers: the EWR cues, the TTR tracks, the missile reaches
Overlap : two sites cover one point — depth for the defender
Gap : no lethal zone — seen by the EWR, not shot
Seam : where coverage hands off — tracks drop, cues arrive late
This gap is 20 km at heading 090°. Why would a turn change it?
Every zone here is heading-dependent; the demo will prove it. Seams return in L33.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Quick Exercise
Quick Exercise / Type-along: Which Bound Binds?
Type this with me — one radar, one aspect, three altitudes.
% L32 -- which bound binds: the horizon or the R^4 law?
Rref = 80; sref = 1; % radar: 80 km on a 1 m^2 target
sig = 0.5; % RCS it sees at this aspect [m^2]
hr = 12; % radar mast height [m]
ht = [30 150 600]; % three target altitudes [m]
Rdet = Rref*(sig/sref)^(1/4); % R^4 law: one range [km]
dhor = 4.12*(sqrt(hr) + sqrt(ht)); % 4/3-Earth horizon [km]
for k = 1:3
if dhor(k) < Rdet, lim = 'horizon'; else, lim = 'R^4'; end
fprintf('%3d m: horizon %5.1f R^4 %4.1f -> %4.1f km (%s)\n', ...
ht(k), dhor(k), Rdet, min(dhor(k), Rdet), lim);
end
At 150 m the horizon still wins, by 2.6 km. What altitude flips it?
Then: raise the mast to 30 m. Which row changes its answer?
Type it line by line with the class, then take answers on both beats.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Quick Problem
Quick Problem: Low and Inside
A low-level ingress against one SAM site: its TTR, and the missile behind it.
TTR mast height: 9 m
Aircraft altitude: 64 m
TTR detection range (R⁴ law, this aspect): 52 km
Missile average speed $v_m$: 0.9 km/s
Maximum time of flight $t_{\max}$: 35 s
Aircraft speed $v_t$: 0.3 km/s
(a) The radar horizon to the aircraft, and which bound sets its detection range.
(b) The MEZ and the LEZ.
(c) Launched on at 30 km, it turns directly away. Escape? At 18 km?
(a) 45.3 km — the horizon binds · (b) MEZ 42 km, LEZ 21 km · (c) 30 km: escapes; 18 km: no escape
Two to three minutes, calculators or a MATLAB console; then click.
Today's Interactive Demo: Threat Laydown
Companion script: L32_ThreatRings.m
Live demo
Threat Laydown
usafa-ece.github.io/ece-495-ew
Demo hand-off; drive it from here. One site, X-band TTR, heading 090,
the B-21 at 12,000 m. Four copies of the aircraft sit on the contour,
all on the same heading: nose-on, both beams, tail. Swing the heading
slider and let them watch the cross rotate with it while the dashed
nose-on ring never moves. Band chips: the VHF contour barely changes
shape. Altitude slider down to the Low flyer preset and the horizon
ring cuts the contour; raise the mast and it backs off. Missile
sliders move the MEZ, LEZ and the orange envelope; turn on the lethal
zone to see where they overlap the TTR's track. Last, the Layered
preset: read the gap tile, then swing the heading and watch it open
and close. Companion script runs on their own.
Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Wrap-Up
Wrap-Up
Key ideas
Heading sets the aspect at every bearing: the contour follows the pattern , not a circle
Detection needs line of sight too: $\min(R, d)$, and altitude picks the bound
The MEZ is the reach against a closing target; the LEZ is where turning away fails
A laydown is overlaps, gaps and seams — every one of them heading-dependent
Next lesson
L33: Information Geometry — how well their network can locate you, and where it cannot
Final Project T1 is today's picture: contours, MEZ and LEZ, gaps and seams
Work the L33 pre-flight before class — you could be the one up front
Close the loop on the objectives slide; point at Final Project T1.