USAFA DFEC

ECE 495 — Electromagnetic Warfare and Survivability

Block 4: Aircraft Survivability and Mission Planning
Lesson 32: Threat Geometry
Juan Jurado, Col, USAF, Ph.D.
Permanent Professor and Head
Electrical and Computer Engineering
Fall 2026
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Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Where We Left Off

Where We Left Off

L31 wrote survivability as a chain of links, $P_K = P_D \cdot P_{T|D} \cdot P_{I|T} \cdot P_{H|I} \cdot P_{K|H}$, and multiplied the encounters into $P_S$.

But every link after the first needs the defender to see you and then to reach you. Where on the map is that true?

Today we draw that map — the ring each site throws — and find out why it is never the circle on the planning chart.

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Objectives

Lesson Objectives

By the end of this lesson, you will be able to:

  • Draw an aspect-dependent detection contour from the R⁴ law and the B-21 pattern
  • Bound it with the radar horizon, and say which bound binds at an altitude
  • Distinguish the MEZ from the LEZ, and what turning away does in each
  • Read a layered laydown for overlaps, gaps, and seams
A threat ring is not a circle — it depends on where you point your nose and how high you fly.

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · The Contour

The Detection Contour: Heading Sets the Aspect

N N line of sight φ ψ θ radar aircraft heading
Aspect the radar sees from bearing $\varphi$
$$\theta = \mathrm{wrap}\left(\varphi + 180^\circ - \psi\right)$$
The contour: R⁴ law at that aspect
$$R(\varphi) = R_{\text{ref}}\left[\frac{\sigma_b\big(\theta(\varphi)\big)}{\sigma_{\text{ref}}}\right]^{1/4}$$
  • One heading everywhere — only the bearing changes what the radar sees
  • $\theta = 0$ is nose-on; $180^\circ$ is tail-on (the Project 3 pattern)

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · The Contour

The B-21 Contour: a Cross, Not a Circle

nose-on beam beam tail VHF EWR rings every 25 km

Heading 090°: every copy of the aircraft flies left to right. Project 3's VHF EWR and X-band TTR:

RadarNose-onBeamTail
EWR89.9 km100.9 km89.9 km
TTR45.6 km91.0 km60.8 km
  • Solid navy: the X-band contour. Dashed: its nose-on ring, the one a chart draws
  • The forward sector is quiet — down to 21.6 km — and the beams spike

Why is the VHF contour almost a circle?

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · The Horizon

The Radar Horizon: the Earth Gets a Vote

hr 4.12√hr 4.12√ht grazing point high: seen low: masked 4/3-Earth curvature, exaggerated — not to scale
Radar horizon (4/3 Earth)
$$d = 4.12\left(\sqrt{h_r} + \sqrt{h_t}\right)\ \text{km}$$
  • Heights in meters, $d$ in km. L11 used one end, $4.12\sqrt{h}$; now the mast gets a term
  • A ridge is a nearer horizon: terrain masking works the same way
  • Detection needs both: $R_{\text{eff}}(\varphi) = \min\big(R(\varphi),\,d\big)$

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Which Bound Binds

Fly Low, and the Horizon Binds

The X-band TTR on a 10 m mast, the B-21 nose-on: R⁴ gives 45.6 km. At 30 m the Earth cuts that to 35.6 km.

range (km)
aircraft altitude (m)
horizon · 35.6 km

Now climb to 150 m. Which bound takes over — and where do the two cross?

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Which Bound Binds

Climb, and the R⁴ Law Takes Over

At 150 m the horizon is out at 63.5 km; the signature, not the Earth, now sets 45.6 km.

range (km)
aircraft altitude (m)
R⁴ law · 45.6 km

The crossing sits where $d = R$: $h^\ast = \left(R/4.12 - \sqrt{h_r}\right)^2$. The quieter you are, the lower it falls — the same mast crosses the VHF EWR near 350 m.

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Engagement Zones

Seen Is Not Shot: the MEZ and the LEZ

A missile flies at an average speed $v_m$ for at most $t_{\max}$; the target flies at $v_t$.

MEZ — target flying straight at the site
$$R_{\text{MEZ}} = (v_m + v_t)\,t_{\max}$$
LEZ — target turning directly away
$$R_{\text{LEZ}} = (v_m - v_t)\,t_{\max}$$
  • The MEZ is the outer boundary; the LEZ is the no-escape zone inside it
  • Inside $R_{\min}$ the missile cannot guide or arm in time — a hole at the center

A constant-speed teaching model. "MEZ" is also Joint airspace-control vocabulary (JP 3-01); air-to-air literature says "no-escape zone."

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Engagement Zones

Two Aircraft, Both Closing: Both Inside the Reach

40 km
20 km
to scale · 5.6 px/km
Closing: the reach is the MEZ
$$(1.00 + 0.25) \times 40 = 50\ \text{km}$$
  • $v_m = 1.0$ km/s, $v_t = 0.25$ km/s, $t_{\max} = 40$ s
  • One aircraft at 40 km, one at 20 km — both nose-on to the site

Both turn directly away at launch. What happens to the ring?

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Engagement Zones

Turn Away, and the Reach Shrinks to the LEZ

40 km
20 km
to scale · 5.6 px/km · dashed: the MEZ
Opening: the reach is the LEZ
$$(1.00 - 0.25) \times 40 = 30\ \text{km}$$
  • At 40 km the turn wins: the missile runs out of time
  • At 20 km it loses: inside the LEZ there is no escape
Between the rings, turning away wins.

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Engagement Zones

Any Heading: the Envelope Between the Rings

50 40 40 30 MEZ LEZ km, heading 090°
Radial approximation
$$R(\alpha) \approx (v_m + v_t\cos\alpha)\,t_{\max}$$
  • $\alpha$ is the angle from your velocity to the site — the same aspect $\theta$ that set $\sigma$
  • Closing ($\alpha = 0$): the MEZ. Opening ($180^\circ$): the LEZ. Abeam: $v_m t_{\max}$
  • Lethal zone = inside the contour, inside the envelope, outside $R_{\min}$

The exact intercept triangle agrees at 0° and 180° and is within about 3% abeam at these speeds.

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Layered Defenses

Layered Defenses: Overlaps, Gaps, and Seams

SAM-1 SAM-2 SAM-3 EWR gap 20 km overlap 9.6 km heading 090° · 3 px/km
  • L7's layers: the EWR cues, the TTR tracks, the missile reaches
  • Overlap: two sites cover one point — depth for the defender
  • Gap: no lethal zone — seen by the EWR, not shot
  • Seam: where coverage hands off — tracks drop, cues arrive late

This gap is 20 km at heading 090°. Why would a turn change it?

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Quick Exercise

Quick Exercise / Type-along: Which Bound Binds?

Type this with me — one radar, one aspect, three altitudes.

% L32 -- which bound binds: the horizon or the R^4 law?
Rref = 80;  sref = 1;          % radar: 80 km on a 1 m^2 target
sig  = 0.5;                    % RCS it sees at this aspect [m^2]
hr   = 12;                     % radar mast height [m]
ht   = [30 150 600];           % three target altitudes [m]
Rdet = Rref*(sig/sref)^(1/4);  % R^4 law: one range [km]
dhor = 4.12*(sqrt(hr) + sqrt(ht));   % 4/3-Earth horizon [km]
for k = 1:3
  if dhor(k) < Rdet, lim = 'horizon'; else, lim = 'R^4'; end
  fprintf('%3d m: horizon %5.1f  R^4 %4.1f -> %4.1f km (%s)\n', ...
          ht(k), dhor(k), Rdet, min(dhor(k), Rdet), lim);
end

At 150 m the horizon still wins, by 2.6 km. What altitude flips it?

Then: raise the mast to 30 m. Which row changes its answer?

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Quick Problem

Quick Problem: Low and Inside

A low-level ingress against one SAM site: its TTR, and the missile behind it.

  • TTR mast height: 9 m
  • Aircraft altitude: 64 m
  • TTR detection range (R⁴ law, this aspect): 52 km
  • Missile average speed $v_m$: 0.9 km/s
  • Maximum time of flight $t_{\max}$: 35 s
  • Aircraft speed $v_t$: 0.3 km/s
  1. (a) The radar horizon to the aircraft, and which bound sets its detection range.
  2. (b) The MEZ and the LEZ.
  3. (c) Launched on at 30 km, it turns directly away. Escape? At 18 km?
(a) 45.3 km — the horizon binds  ·  (b) MEZ 42 km, LEZ 21 km  ·  (c) 30 km: escapes; 18 km: no escape

Today's Interactive Demo: Threat Laydown

Companion script: L32_ThreatRings.m
Live demo

Threat Laydown

usafa-ece.github.io/ece-495-ew

Block 4 · Lesson 32 · Wrap-Up

Wrap-Up

Key ideas
  • Heading sets the aspect at every bearing: the contour follows the pattern, not a circle
  • Detection needs line of sight too: $\min(R, d)$, and altitude picks the bound
  • The MEZ is the reach against a closing target; the LEZ is where turning away fails
  • A laydown is overlaps, gaps and seams — every one of them heading-dependent
Next lesson
  • L33: Information Geometry — how well their network can locate you, and where it cannot
  • Final Project T1 is today's picture: contours, MEZ and LEZ, gaps and seams
  • Work the L33 pre-flight before class — you could be the one up front