Lesson 31 — Survivability and the PK Chain

Put a probability on every link of the L1 kill chain and one engagement's kill probability becomes a product, P_K = P_H · P_K|H — susceptibility times vulnerability. Independent encounters multiply into a mission survival P_S = Π(1 − P_K,i), and the logarithm turns that product into a sum of risks, −ln P_S, the cost a route planner can add. The Final Project is issued today.

Reading

Survivability and the PK Chain

Ball's susceptibility and vulnerability, the kill chain as a product of conditional links, the two toolkits of levers, and additive risk across a route.

Flashcards

Review deck

Key terms and relations from the lesson, in a self-test deck.

Pre-flight

Pre-flight quiz

Five questions to work before class — anyone can be called to the board.

Slides

Lesson slides

The deck we work through in class — an HTML deck you can annotate in the browser, with a print view for saving a PDF.

Demo · L1 revisit

Kill Chain Explorer

The L1 demo, revisited: walk each link again and name the block that bought each lever and the probability it shrinks.